On the one hand there is the laptop (or smaller sub notebook) and on the other the iPhone or Nokia Internet Tablet. The laptop is too big to be truly useful as a mobile computing device and the iPhone or Nokia devices don’t allow for a wide array of uses (e.g., writing/editing documents). Is there something in the middle? A recent NY Times article explores that possibility.

I’ve written in the past about what I’ve called the “two device scenario,” wherein someone carries a mobile phone but also another device for mobile Internet access. In my mind the Amazon Kindle or Sony eBook Reader are the right size and form factor (with several improvements) to be a model for that as yet undeveloped better  mobile Internet device.

But there are also other potential scenarios that are equally fascinating. One of those in my mind involves near-ubiqutious Internet “kiosks” that complement personal mobile access (think ATMs turned into quasi-Internet acess devices with touch screens). I think it’s only a matter of time before one of the major banks offers something like local maps or selected local content via their ATM network (together with related advertising).

One of the most compelling pieces of technology to come out of Microsoft in a long time is Surface, which is now in use at some AT&T Wireless stores. It might be incorporated into many future applications including outdoor kiosks, which could provide people with a better “mobile” Internet experience, when they’re traveling or out and about.

___

Voice as an input mechanism has a major role to play on these smaller devices.

The NY Times covers the rise of spam text messaging, which has been around but is growing to coincide with the rise in reach of SMS as a marketing medium:

Cellphones have become consumers’ most personal technological devices. Some industry executives, along with consumer groups and security experts, are concerned that unwanted text messages on phones will be an even greater headache than unwanted computer messages.

There’s conflicting data about whether consumers are receptive or resistant to mobile marketing. The trend is toward acceptance but with a fair degree of hostility toward “irrelevant” ads. There’s a problem and a paradox there however: consumers want “relevant” ads but express discomfort about being targeted and tracked.

While email spam is annoying text-based spam costs consumers money (unless they have unlimited text plans) and so this is a much more sensitive and intense issue for everyone.

Now several consumer groups are trying to get the US FTC to regulate mobile marketing so that it all effectively becomes “opt-in.” There’s also a corresponding movement on the desktop. These efforts toward moderation should be embraced by the industry but also shaped so that they don’t too narrowly constrict mobile marketing at this critical early stage of development.

I previously argued that the future of BlackBerry is tied to it becoming a “platform” for third-party applications; and the corresponding health of that “ecosystem” will determine whether it falls prey to the iPhone and/or other competitors (e.g., Android phones). The BlackBerry is the US smartphone market leader, with roughly 40% share, but the iPhone has been gaining.

In order to defend against the iPhone now that it’s “enterprise capable” BlackBerry has to take the fight to the iPhone’s stronghold: consumers. In order to survive it will have to go from being “an email device,” to a full featured consumer handset. That means helping developers create compelling applications for it.

There’s the iFund (for Apple iPhone development) and the Android Developer Challenge (funding Android application development) and, now apparently, an equivalent effort (at $150 million) to fund BlackBerry applications development. Several sources this morning are discussing the forthcoming announcement.

Back to Android: The developer challenge is over now and the top 50 applications will each get $25K each. Those folks will be competing for ten $275,000 awards and ten $100,000 awards. Here’s what Android/Google had to say about the array of applications that were submitted, many of which apparently fall into the “local” and/or “social” categories:

Many of the top submissions took advantage of the geo and social networking capabilities of Android. These apps allow friends to share their personal experiences and favorite content such as vacations, photos, shows, music, cooking recipes, restaurants, and much more as they relate to certain locales. I’ve also seen applications that connect people during emergency situations and others that allow users to share information on how they can reduce their carbon footprint. One developer even turned a real city block into a playing field where gamers can role-play and chase after villains.

Furthermore, some of these applications provide rich interactive experiences by combining web services and mash-ups to bring together data that’s on the web with data that’s on the mobile device. One application combined weather, pollen and allergy information in the context of a map that is relevant to a user’s location.

Though many applications use a traditional “download” model for data, many also enable users to publish content, such as photos or even voice memos, for others to use on other mobile devices or the web.

TechCrunch captured some images (and brief discussion) of some Android apps that were developed by MIT students.

For the foreseeable future, the mobile market will never not be fragmented (say that 10 times fast). However, there are now too many “platforms” and would-be platforms out there, some of which simply won’t be widely adopted.

We’re now in what might be called the “Mesozoic era for mobile” and it’s going to be a Darwinian fight for attention and survival.

Over the past week there have been various reports that VirginMobile USA and Helio, both MVNOs, have been exploring a merger. Virgin, which mostly sells prepaid wireless, had a tough Q1 and Helio, a joint venture of Earthlink and Korea’s SK Telekom, has been highly innovative and visible in the industry, but has been unable to break a million US subscribers.

Virgin had churn of 5.1%, which is higher than any of the top 10 US mobile carriers. AT&T, Verizon and T-Mobile all posted reasonably strong results and subscriber growth.

According to comScore’s recent wireless report, “coverage, price, and family/friend connectivity” are the top reasons for switching carriers. Two of those implicate scale. The following are the most important features that US consumers value in mobile carriers/plans:

“Highly Important” Wireless Features:

1. Unlimited off-peak minutes
2. Free in-network calling
3. Keep unused plan minutes (rollover)
4. Wireless carrier name that I know
5. Text messaging
6. Ability to use a specific phone on the plan
7. Option to pre-pay for minutes
8. Multi-media messaging
9. Ability to use my phone as a GPS device
10. Web browsing/ Internet access
11. Instant messaging
12. E-mail
13. Walkie-Talkie (Push to talk)

Source: comScore, March 2008 (n=2,000)

Virgin’s prepaid plans are popular with budget conscious consumers. But companies with low-cost flat-rate calling, such as MetroPCS (”ditch your landline”), are competing more effectively among the cost conscious.

Assuming the merger happens, we’ll also likely see eventual consolidation among Alltell, Leap, MetroPCS and some of the others lower down on the food chain. It’s inevitable.

MVNOs have also had a tough time of it in the US (see Amp’d), although we probably haven’t seen the last of these efforts.

____

Related: JD Power released customer satisfaction figures for the major US carriers.

Local Mobile Search Advisory
Different data sources are using incompatible yardsticks to measure key variables such as overall penetration, frequency of use and mix of services accessed by mobile subscribers. For the time being, plugging projections into business or product plans is as much art as science. LMS takes a look at the data and provides insight into the measured sources of discrepancies.

Advisories are available to registered LMS users only.

For more information on becoming an LMS client, please contact Pete Headrick (pheadrick@opusresearch.net)

Please Login or Register to read the rest of this content.

Here’s the list of supported phones for Yahoo Go 3.0, which now includes some Windows Mobile phones. Go 3.0 is a dramatic improvement over 2.0 and I’ve been waiting to use it on my HTC Windows Mobile phone.

Scott Jones, co-founder of ChaCha is reporting in a press release that ChaCha’s new “mobile answers” service is “seeing usage rates that exceed 40 queries per month. Our most active users are tapping ChaCha multiple times per day resulting in over 150 questions per month.”

Below is the paid/traditional DA call frequency data we collected in our earlier consumer DA survey.

Regarding mobile search frequency, we’ve observed anywhere from nine per month to nine per day in the case of one provider. Forty queries per month is consistent with average US desktop search frequency (per comScore), which is quite significant in terms of monetization potential.

The ChaCha figures also suggest what many people have been suggesting: that mobile query volume eventually has the capacity to overtake the desktop. The voice interface facilitates greater volume or frequency because it’s intuitive and doesn’t rely on keyboard entry.

On the heels of its 3G rollout, the US division Deutsche Telekom of posted solid growth, reaching a 30 million subscriber milestone. According to the company’s earnings release, “At the end of the quarter, T-Mobile USA had 30.8 million customers, adding 981,000 net new customers during the first quarter.”

Here’s a breakdown of the US carrier subscriber numbers (not updated to reflect the new T-Mobile data):

There were no comments apparently by T-Mobile on the rumored interest in acquiring Sprint, which has some renewed vigor in the wake of yesterday’s WiMax joint venture announcement.

Dan Miller and I met with Atlas (now a division of Microsoft) to get a look at the company’s new “engagement ROI” model and related tools and tracking. It was very interesting and will be the subject of another post at some point somewhere . . .

But one of the several digressions we pursued was the issue of mobile handsets being used to track and extend traditional media. This is one of my favorite topics these days. And iMedia today has piece providing an overview of the area. It’s primarily about 2D barcode technology.

However SMS provides comparable functionality without the necessary downloads and/or “infrastructure.” We would expect that eventually most traditional media (TV, print, outdoor, newspapers) will feature some direct response component using mobile devices — call it “mobile response.”

The NY Times was reporting the other day that AT&T is selling the Motorola Z9 smartphone for $99 in the US with a two-year contract. This makes it a competitor of and in the same price range as the Palm Centro, also being sold for $99. The Centro has done very well for Palm, although I understand the margins are not great.

The iPhone is also potentially going to be subsidized by AT&T when the 3G version launches this summer.

Why is all this significant?

Smartphones comprise about 6% of the US market and perhaps a slightly larger share of the EU market. Price drives consumer adoption (hence the success of the Centro) and smartphones change user behavior.

Smartphone users access the mobile Internet and conduct mobile search three to four times as frequently as conventional cell phone users. This is even more pronounced at the highest frequency levels, with smartphone owners accessing the mobile Internet many more times and in higher numbers than conventional cellphone users:

Source: M:Metrics (2008)